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How to Find Breakout Days

Playing a breakout everyday can lead to nasty drawdowns. It would be nice to avoid the bad times. If you like playing blackjack then you are familiar with card counting. Card counters raise their bets when the count is unfavorable for the dealer. They are filtering the data and optimizing bet size. The same principle can be applied to trading.

How?

Look for a filter that is correlated to your pl. Once you find it use it to vary your bet size like a card counters. Since I play basic spreadintraday breakouts, I found my filter in implied volatility. Implied volatility data is hard to find but I will give you a good substitute. A simple 10 day moving average of daily range is a great simple filter. It’s an easy filter to program as an indicator in a charting program or excel. When the average is rising, increase your size and let winners run. When he average is falling cut your size and play for targets.

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